| Article | |
|---|---|
| Article name | The Struggle for the Future: An Alternative Model or a Competition of Scenarios? |
| Authors | Kovalev A.A. Candidate of Political Science, kovalev-aa@ranepa.ru |
| Bibliographic description | Kovalev AA. The Struggle for the Future: An Alternative Model or a Competition of Scenarios? Humanitarian Vector. 2026;21(1):87-97. (In Russian). https://www.doi.org/10.21209/1996-7853-2026-21-1-87-97 |
| Section | CULTURE AND SOCIETY |
| UDK | УДК 355.01 |
| DOI | https://www.doi.org/10.21209/1996-7853-2026-21-1-87-97 |
| Article type | Original article |
| Annotation | The relevance of the research is related to the development of a multipolar system in the 21st century and to the competition of regional and global development models. The focus is on the question of how one model secures the status of a generally accepted one, while alternative scenarios remain at the level of statements. The purpose of the work is to identify the main ways to maintain the status of “no alternative” to the Western model and identify the signs of institutional design, in the presence of which the alternative scenario moves from declarations to management decisions. The hypothesis is that in the absence of alternative design in rules, standards, indicators and organizational solutions, the Western model retains the advantage; with the emergence of institutions comparable in function, alternative scenarios have increased chances of practical implementation. The materials and methods involve the study of works by domestic and foreign authors, as well as publications and information resources reflecting the discussion about scenario forecasting and the competition of development models. The axiological approach, discursive analysis and comparative analysis are applied. The conceptual apparatus of discursive analysis uses the developments of M. Foucault and N. Fairclough (normativity and the power of formulations), and the scenario block uses the approaches of G. Schwartz and P. Schoomaker (the signs of a scenario and the conditions for its consolidation). The discursive analysis is used to identify formulations that consolidate the universality of norms and reduce the importance of alternatives, the comparative analysis is used to highlight differences in the ways of institutional design of scenarios at the global and regional levels.The results are expressed in the conclusion that the Western model often retains the status of an uncontested one due to the dissemination of norms, standards, indicators and practices adopted as a common model. The mechanisms of spreading such norms and standards to the non-Western space are shown, as well as the limitations of alternative scenarios related to insufficient institutional formalization and the gap between the stated goals and practical implementation tools. Typical “anchoring points” are highlighted separately: international rules, rating metrics, educational standards, and training regulations. The lack of a viable alternative is seen as a vulnerability of the emerging multipolar system, as it reduces the possibilities of independent strategic design and makes it difficult to coordinate interests. It is advisable to link further research with the study of the conditions for the institutional design of alternative scenarios, their consolidation in regulatory decisions and the assessment of the effectiveness of such consolidation for global strategic planning. |
| Key words | alternative, semantic confrontation, futurology, development models, independence, transformation |
| Article information | |
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