Article
Article name	Mechanisms of Conflict Dynamics and the Revolution in Ukraine
Authors	Rozov N.S. Doctor of Philosophy, Professor,
Bibliographic description
Section	POINT OF VIEW
UDK	947.084.6
DOI
Article type
Annotation	The article examines the processes around the Euromaidan since November 2013 up to February 2014 in terms of conflict dynamics in political crisis and prediction capabilities. The first part of the article was written before the pivotal events of February 18–21. A model of conflict dynamics and correspondent forecasts are presented. There are different conditions of conflict dynamics for each of the three main channels: 1) mutual escalation of aggression and violence, 2) negotiation, compromise, and pacification, 3) unstable dynamics with truces and recurrent violence. The second part compares the actual events and the theoretical predictions. Significant but previously unrecorded factors that affect the political crisis dynamics are revealed. Reasons of prognostic failures and non-sufficiently accurate predictions are investigated. Coincidence and sequence of events cannot be predicted. Many characteristics of actors, their actions and interactions change significantly during military confrontation. The speed and intensity of power change is determined by positive feedback as a result of series of events, each of which is insufficient, but together they provide structural, qualitative effect.
Key words	political crisis, conflict dynamics, escalation of violence, Euromaidan, the Ukrainian revolution, political forecasts, forecast errors
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