| Annotation |
The paper represents the results of the modernization research conducted on three
levels: philosophical, theoretical and empirical. Methods of comparative and theoretical
history and historical macro-sociology are used: factor analysis of historical dynamics,
evaluation and scaling, construction of trend-structures and transition models. Through the
comparative analysis of the historical dynamic of Western European, Asian and North African
countries, according to their resource supply, an attempt is made to interpret the problem
of modernization. The conducted research allows claiming that intensification, as the main
tendency and indicator of modernization process, sets in as a result of the lack of potentials
for an extensive economic strategy. Comparing the data about population size, availability
and condition of land resources, hydrocarbon reserves and their significance for economy,
as well as the results of the socio-economic development in these countries, the author
comes to the conclusion that resource constraints are necessary factor for modernization.
Their absence drives a society toward “torpid modernization”, the characteristics are slowdown of the transformation of social structure, a persistent technology gap behind
developed countries, recurring failure and backtracking to the traditional system of relations.
A similar study regarding influence of hydrocarbon supply on modernization, as well as
the analysis of the historical dynamic of Russia, allowed to describe the mechanisms that
hamper modernization processes in resource-rich countries, and finally to build up a trend
structure that explains the stagnancy of the Russian economic system and the mobility of
economic systems of primary centers of industrial society (Western Europe, Japan). |
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